China and India Drive Global GDP Growth in 2026
China is forecast to contribute 26.6% of global real GDP growth in 2026, by far the largest share of any country.
Despite slower headline growth rates compared to previous decades, China’s sheer economic size still makes it the single biggest driver of global expansion.
Here’s a look at each country’s contribution to global real GDP growth in 2026:
|
Rank
|
Country
|
2025 Real GDP (PPP, billions)
|
2026 Real GDP Growth
|
Share of 2026 Global Real GDP Growth
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇨🇳 China | $41,015.8 | 4.2% | 26.6% |
| 2 | 🇮🇳 India | $17,714.2 | 6.2% | 17.0% |
| 3 | 🇺🇸 United States | $30,615.7 | 2.1% | 9.9% |
| 4 | 🇮🇩 Indonesia | $5,015.8 | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| 5 | 🇹🇷 Türkiye | $3,766.8 | 3.7% | 2.2% |
| 6 | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | $2,688.5 | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 7 | 🇪🇬 Egypt | $2,381.5 | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 8 | 🇻🇳 Vietnam | $1,807.1 | 5.6% | 1.6% |
| 9 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | $4,973.4 | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| 10 | 🇳🇬 Nigeria | $2,254.2 | 4.2% | 1.5% |
India follows as the second-largest contributor, accounting for 17% of global growth. Together, China and India are expected to generate more than 43% of global real GDP growth in 2026.
Among advanced economies, the U.S. is projected to contribute 9.9% of global growth, making it the largest contributor across all developed nations.
Europe’s contribution stands at 9.5% of global growth, spread across Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and other economies. Slower population growth, aging demographics, and tighter financial conditions continue to weigh on the region’s economic expansion.
When combined, the U.S. and the EU together account for just 16% of total global growth, with the center of economic momentum shifting toward emerging markets.
From a regional perspective, the Asia-Pacific region dominates global growth with a 59.4% share, with Indonesia, Vietnam, and other economies playing a significant role alongside China and India.
North America contributes 11.4%, followed by Europe. Africa, which hosts most of the world’s fastest-growing economies, accounts for 7.7% of global growth, led by Nigeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia.
Overall, global growth in 2026 is forecast to be largely driven by countries in earlier stages of economic development, supported by population growth, workforce expansion, and rising consumption and government spending.
Información extraída de: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/who-is-powering-global-economic-growth-in-2026/
