- The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points Wednesday to reach the 5.25%-5.5% range.
- Policymakers said they will adjust rates on a “meeting-by-meeting” basis as more data comes in.
- Investors expect rates will remain steady for the rest of the year, per CME’s FedWatch Tool.
Odds are, the Federal Reserve won’t make any more interest rate changes the rest of the year.
At least according to investor bets across the market, as illustrated by CME’s FedWatch Tool.
On Wednesday, policymakers made a 25-basis-point interest rate hike to bring the federal funds rate to the 5.25%-5.5% range. Chair Jerome Powell maintained that the Fed will make future policy decisions on a “meeting-by-meeting” basis as new economic data comes in.
Per CME, however, traders are giving the highest odds to a scenario where the benchmark rate stays in the current range after Fed meetings in September (76%), November (64.7%), and December (62.1%).
Edward Moya, a strategist at Oanda, believes the central bank is likely done with rate hikes, and that buoys soft-landing hopes.
“The Fed is keeping optionality for future rate increases but it probably won’t need them,” Moya wrote in a note after the policy announcement. “The disinflation process will remain as the economy is weakening and the corporate world should start feeling the impact of tighter credit conditions. ”
Case in point, June’s CPI report came in cooler than expected at a 3% annual rate, down from 9.1% a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s staff economists no longer see a recession, and the initial reading on second-quarter GDP showed a surprise acceleration to 2.4% growth.
But others on Wall Street aren’t yet convinced that the Fed is done tightening.
“The September 20th FOMC meeting could go either way in terms of another hike or another pause,” DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas wrote in a note Thursday. “Powell pointed out that the FOMC will have the benefit of seeing two rounds of monthly economic data before its next rate decision. June’s better than expected CPI reading could be the start of a string of good news reports, or it could just have been a one-off improvement.”
